US Primary Care Workforce Growth: A Decade of Limited Progress, and Projected Needs Through 2040

Despite efforts to mitigate a projected primary care physician (PCP) shortage required to meet an aging, growing, and increasingly insured population, shortages remain, compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, growing inequity, and persistent underinvestment.

The Affordable Care Act of 2010 expanded health coverage to 31 million Americans, accelerating demand for primary care. This rising demand has consistently outpaced the supply of primary care physicians (PCPs), particularly impacting vulnerable and underserved populations, due to persistent maldistribution. The COVID-19 pandemic further compounded the problem, accelerating demand, widening disparities, and stressing an already underfunded and overworked primary care sector.