The first significant expansion of allopathic medical schools since the 1970s was anticipated to produce more physicians capable of addressing the nation’s current and projected primary care shortages. However, our analysis of the early outputs of new allopathic medical schools suggests that these students were nearly 40% less likely to specialize in family medicine than existing schools.

The likelihood of future shortages of adult primary care physicians is of great concern for policy makers as the US population grows and ages.